A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
